戴德梁行:全球楼市速览(2010.01.29)

Mainland China

1.     Vice-Premier Li Keqiang told the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday that Beijing will continue its "moderately loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy" - a phrase that was left out of a recent speech by Premier Wen Jiabao, causing jitters in the regional markets. However, Li added that Beijing will make its economic policies "more targeted and flexible", a statement analysts interpreted as a fine-tuning of China's year-old pro-growth policy after better-than-expected economic data suggested a solid recovery of the world's third-largest economy. (SCMP)

2.     More tightening measures including a new property tax, commandeering idle land sites, and tougher rules on the listing of developers are likely in first- tier cities, mainland media reported. The Shanghai government recently warned it may take over land idle for more than two years, and owners of sites undeveloped for between one to two years may have to pay a fee equivalent to 20 percent of the land price. Beijing will impose a property tax of between 0.5% and 1% by the end of 2011, media reported yesterday. A percentage of the valuation after discount would be charged to the owner of the premises as property tax. (The Standard)

3.     China plans to adjust some of its stimulus policies this year and targets a higher growth in retail sales as part of efforts to sustain a healthy economic recovery, a vice commerce minister said yesterday. The minister said the Government expects retail sales to jump 16% this year, compared with a 15.5% expansion in 2009. (Shanghai Daily).

4.     Mounting inflationary pressures have already resulted in prompt government actions. The People's Bank of China early this month raised banks' reserve requirement by 50 basis points, the first such hike since Dec 2008. The Central Bank also guided bill yields higher, asked smaller lenders to set aside more reserves and offered window guidance to selected banks to cool their loan growth. "China's exit strategy will initially focus on quantitative measures such as loan quota and reserve requirement to stabilise both asset and consumer goods prices," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. "They will be followed by administrative measures to cancel some projects to both cool the economy and to reduce excess capacities," Lu said. Most observers believed risks of property bubbles and consumer price inflation may fade in mid-2010, when China will move to allow the yuan to rise and raise interest rates. (Shanghai Daily).

5.     Calling home prices in Shanghai already "too high," Mayor Han Zheng said yesterday the city will continue to increase the supply of affordable housing and be tough on property speculation. The Government plans to start construction this year on 12 million sq m worth of affordable homes, or 60% of the city's yearly target for new residential development. One third of that, 4 million sq m, will be budget homes. In Shanghai, the affordable housing program mainly covers budget homes, low-rent apartments, and houses built for relocated residents under urban redevelopment plans. The city plans on building 300,000 budget apartments and putting 300,000 low-rent apartments in use this year, according to Han. "We have to make it clear that housing development in Shanghai should be primarily for end users and that more ordinary homes should be built,'' Han said, referring to residents rather than investors and speculators, and houses other than high-end homes. In addition, the city will closely monitor the housing market and, if necessary, take measures to cool the overheated market, Han said. He noted that price increases in the real estate industry have outpaced increases in the GDP. He said they are beyond citizens' capacity to endure. "The high housing prices not only leave negative impact on the city's sustainable development but also do harm in attracting talents," Han said. In a recent survey of young people, he noted, some 90% of respondents said the high cost of housing caused personal stress. Of those who have bought property, 68% were afraid of losing jobs and rising interest payments. (Shanghai Daily).

Hong Kong

1.     The global stock markets rally helped the Exchange Fund – which invests money for the government and helps to defend the Hong Kong dollar – return to profit, posting investment income of HK$106.7 billion last year. The result meant that the fund has recovered all of its HK$75 billion losses in 2008 when financial turmoil sent markets tumbling. Earnings in 2009 were the second highest on record, behind 2007 when it earned HK$142.2 billion. (SCMP)

2.     Hang Lung Properties said yesterday it would need HK$10 billion over the next three years to develop shopping malls on the mainland, but had no funding pressure as it was debt-free with strong revenues and net cash of HK$2.2 billion. (SCMP)